Author: Roman Marchant; Noelle I Samia; Ori Rosen; Martin A Tanner; Sally Cripps
Title: Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: ijac68gh_19
Snippet: In addition, the performance accuracy of the model does not improve as the forecast horizon decreases. In fact, Table 1 indicates that the reverse is generally true. Interestingly, the model's prediction for the state of New York is consistently accurate, while the model's prediction of the neighboring state of New Jersey, which is part of the New York metropolitan area, is not consistently accurate......
Document: In addition, the performance accuracy of the model does not improve as the forecast horizon decreases. In fact, Table 1 indicates that the reverse is generally true. Interestingly, the model's prediction for the state of New York is consistently accurate, while the model's prediction of the neighboring state of New Jersey, which is part of the New York metropolitan area, is not consistently accurate.
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