Multi-resolution characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic: A unified framework and open-source tool

Shi, A.; Gaynor, S. M.; Quick, C.; Lin, X.

Amidst the continuing spread of COVID-19, real-time data analysis and visualization remain critical to track the pandemic's impact and inform policy making. Multiple metrics have been considered to evaluate the spread, infection, and mortality of infectious diseases. For example, numbers of new cases and deaths provide measures of absolute impact within a given population and time frame, while the effective reproduction rate provides a measure of the rate of spread. It is critical to evaluate multiple metrics concurrently, as they provide complementary insights into the impact and current state of the pandemic. We describe a unified framework for estimating and quantifying the uncertainty in the smoothed daily effective reproduction number, case rate, and death rate in a region using log-linear models. We apply this framework to characterize COVID-19 impact at multiple geographic resolutions, including by US county and state as well as by country, demonstrating the variation across resolutions and the need for harmonized efforts to control the pandemic. We provide an open-source online dashboard for real-time analysis and visualization of multiple key metrics, which are critical to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 and make informed policy decisions.