Author: Nikolaou, Michael
Title: Simple Formulas for a Two-Tier Strategy to Flatten the Curve Cord-id: sf78e5ub Document date: 2020_4_8
ID: sf78e5ub
Snippet: Some basic facts that enable or constrain efforts to"flatten the curve"by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are summarized and placed in the current context of the COVID-19 epidemic. Analytical formulas are presented for a simple two-tier NPI strategy that places different social distancing targets for high- and low-risk groups. The results aim to facilitate rapid what-if analysis rather than replace detailed simulation, which remains indispensable for informed decision making. The appearan
Document: Some basic facts that enable or constrain efforts to"flatten the curve"by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are summarized and placed in the current context of the COVID-19 epidemic. Analytical formulas are presented for a simple two-tier NPI strategy that places different social distancing targets for high- and low-risk groups. The results aim to facilitate rapid what-if analysis rather than replace detailed simulation, which remains indispensable for informed decision making. The appearance of the oft neglected Lambert function in the resulting formulas is noted.
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