Effect of lockdown interventions to control the COVID-19 epidemic in India

Sharma, Ankit; Arya, Shreyash; Kumari, Shashee; Chatterjee, Arnab

The pandemic caused by the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV2 has been responsible for life threatening health complications, and extreme pressure on healthcare systems. While preventive and definite curative medical interventions are yet to arrive, Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) like physical isolation, quarantine and drastic social measures imposed by governing agencies are effective in arresting the spread of infections in a population. In densely populated countries like India, lockdown interventions are partially effective due to social and administrative complexities. Using detailed demographic data, we present an agent based model to imitate the behavior of the population and its mobility features, even under intervention. We demonstrate the effectiveness of contact tracing policies and how our model efficiently relates to empirical findings on testing efficiency. We also present various lockdown intervention strategies for mitigation - using the bare number of infections, the effective reproduction rate, as well as using reinforcement learning. Our analysis can help assess the socio-economic consequences of such interventions, and provide useful ideas and insights to policy makers for better decision making.