Author: Francesco Pinotti; Laura Di Domenico; Ernesto Ortega; Marco Mancastroppa; Giulia Pullano; Eugenio Valdano; Pierre-Yves Boelle; Chiara Poletto; Vittoria Colizza
Title: Lessons learnt from 288 COVID-19 international cases: importations over time, effect of interventions, underdetection of imported cases Document date: 2020_2_25
ID: ad3tct5b_15
Snippet: We used a Bayesian framework to fit the model to imported cases by origin, travel date, and confirmation date. Cases with partial information (e.g. missing date and/or origin of travel) were included by defining latent variables marginalized out during inference. The model was then used to nowcast imported cases two weeks in the future. All details of the analysis are reported in the Appendix......
Document: We used a Bayesian framework to fit the model to imported cases by origin, travel date, and confirmation date. Cases with partial information (e.g. missing date and/or origin of travel) were included by defining latent variables marginalized out during inference. The model was then used to nowcast imported cases two weeks in the future. All details of the analysis are reported in the Appendix.
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