Author: Bimandra A Djaafara; Natsuko Imai; Esther Hamblion; Benido Impouma; Christl A Donnelly; Anne Cori
Title: A quantitative framework to define the end of an outbreak: application to Ebola Virus Disease Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: nnkholfe_51
Snippet: Our results show that under the current WHO criterion to declare the EO for EVD of 42 days with no cases after the last detected case dies or tests negative for the virus twice, the probability of cases arising in the future is still high (up to 54%) in most scenarios. Thus, a more robust EO criterion, supported by quantitative evidence, is needed to minimize the risk of flare-ups of cases after EO declaration. This was also . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 Int.....
Document: Our results show that under the current WHO criterion to declare the EO for EVD of 42 days with no cases after the last detected case dies or tests negative for the virus twice, the probability of cases arising in the future is still high (up to 54%) in most scenarios. Thus, a more robust EO criterion, supported by quantitative evidence, is needed to minimize the risk of flare-ups of cases after EO declaration. This was also . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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