Origin of Multiple Infection Waves in a Pandemic: Effects of Inherent Susceptibility and External Infectivity Distributions

Mukherjee, Saumyak; Mondal, Sayantan; Bagchi, Biman

Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population. While the former is determined by the immunity of an individual towards a disease, the latter depends on the duration of exposure to the infection. We model the spatio-temporal propagation of a pandemic using a generalized SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model by introducing the susceptibility and infectivity distributions to understand their combined effects, which appear to remain inadequately addressed till date. We consider the coupling between $\sigma_{inh}$ and $\iota_{ext}$ through a new Critical Infection Parameter (CIP) ($\gamma_c$). We find that the neglect of these distributions, as in the naive SIR model, results in an overestimation of the amount of infection in a population, which leads to incorrect (higher) estimates of the infections required to achieve the herd immunity threshold. Additionally, we include the effects of seeding of infection in a population by long-range migration. We solve the resulting master equations by performing Kinetic Monte Carlo Cellular Automata (KMC-CA) simulations. Importantly, our simulations can reproduce the multiple infection peak scenario of a pandemic. The latent interactions between disease migration and the distributions of susceptibility and infectivity can render the progression a character vastly different from the naive SIR model. In particular, inclusion of these additional features renders the problem a character of a living percolating system where the disease cluster survives by migrating from region to region.