Deteriorated Covid19 control due to delayed lockdown resulting from strategic interactions between Governments and oppositions.

Carrozzo Magli, A.; d'Onofrio, A.; Manfredi, P.

Background. In many European countries and the US, the burden of Covid-19 epidemic could be much lower if Governments had been able to learn from the China and Lombardy stories and to declare full lockdown without delays. Methods. We use a simple game-theoretic framework for the strategic interaction between the Government, political oppositions and lobbies, combined with a Covid-19 transmission model, to analyse the role of political factors delaying the lockdown declaration, depending on the degrees of "responsibility" of political actors. Results. The lockdown can always be declared immediately (i.e., without delay) as sustained transmission arises, only if the government feels fully "responsible" towards all citizens. If this is not the case, epidemic growth will eventually dominate the agents' payoffs, so that sooner or later the lockdown will always be declared i.e., both the government and the opposition will be forced by the epidemic to switch towards a higher degree of responsibility, but with a delay. There is a further nontrivial situation where the lockdown can be declared without delay, occurring when the political opposition is at least as responsible as the Government. This however requires the solution of a coordination issue, which cannot be taken for granted. Eventually, a vicious circle emerges, where the delayed lockdown requires a much longer lockdown period to achieve adequate control results, thereby causing the explosion of economic losses and so calling for unlocking long before it should. Conclusions. Lockdown delays have dramatically worsened the impact of the current Covid-19 wave in a number of countries. Citizens should be made cogently aware of this to claim maximal responsibility from political actors and economic lobbies to avoid that such stories repeat in the future when further threats, due to Covid-19 itself or other pathogens, will re-appear.