Author: Francesco Pinotti; Laura Di Domenico; Ernesto Ortega; Marco Mancastroppa; Giulia Pullano; Eugenio Valdano; Pierre-Yves Boelle; Chiara Poletto; Vittoria Colizza
Title: Lessons learnt from 288 COVID-19 international cases: importations over time, effect of interventions, underdetection of imported cases Document date: 2020_2_25
ID: ad3tct5b_39
Snippet: Our model predicts that exportations will likely rise from areas outside China. The number of local transmissions is rapidly increasing in the Republic of Korea, Japan, and Singapore 27 , and few importations in Asia and Europe were registered already from travelers from Japan and Singapore. For this reason, certain countries have updated the history of travel for the case definition of a suspect imported case to include additional countries in S.....
Document: Our model predicts that exportations will likely rise from areas outside China. The number of local transmissions is rapidly increasing in the Republic of Korea, Japan, and Singapore 27 , and few importations in Asia and Europe were registered already from travelers from Japan and Singapore. For this reason, certain countries have updated the history of travel for the case definition of a suspect imported case to include additional countries in South Asia besides China 28 or banned travelers from East Asian countries 29 . ECDC and WHO currently base their case definition on travel from China only 30,31 , but this may rapidly change in the next days.
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