Author: Zhanshan (Sam) Ma
Title: A Simple Mathematical Model for Estimating the Inflection Points of COVID-19 Outbreaks Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: fttqmts4_3
Snippet: In theory, it has been suggested that even without fully mechanistic understanding of the underlying critical transitions, it is still possible to infer generic features or early warning signals (EWS) of approaching a tipping point from time series or spatial pattern data. Theory proposes that at bifurcation points (i.e., tipping points), the stability of an equilibrium changes and the dominant real eigenvalue becomes zero. Consequently, the reco.....
Document: In theory, it has been suggested that even without fully mechanistic understanding of the underlying critical transitions, it is still possible to infer generic features or early warning signals (EWS) of approaching a tipping point from time series or spatial pattern data. Theory proposes that at bifurcation points (i.e., tipping points), the stability of an equilibrium changes and the dominant real eigenvalue becomes zero. Consequently, the recovery rate from disturbance should go zero when approaching such bifurcation, or the return time (measure of resilience) should be infinity (Veraart et al. 2012) . In practice, the recovery rate from disturbance may be an indicator of the distance to a tipping point, and its manifestation, the CSD offer important early EWS for approaching a tipping point.
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