Evaluation of Different Types of Face Masks to Limit the Spread of SARS CoV 2, A Modeling Study

Gurbaxani, B. M.; Hill, A. N.; Paul, P.; Prasad, P. V.; Slayton, R. B.

We updated a published mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with laboratory-derived source and wearer protection efficacy estimates for a variety of face masks to estimate their impact on COVID-19 incidence and related mortality in the United States. When used at already-observed population rates of 80% for those [≥]65 years and 60% for those <65 years, face masks are associated with 69% (cloth) to 78% (medical procedure mask) reductions in cumulative COVID-19 infections and 82% (cloth) to 87% (medical procedure mask) reductions in related deaths over a 6 month timeline in the model. If cloth or medical procedure masks' source control and wearer protection efficacies are boosted about 30% each to 84% and 60% by cloth over medical procedure masking, fitters, or braces, the COVID-19 basic reproductive number of 2.5 could decrease to an effective reproductive number [≤] 1.0, and from 4.0 to {approx} 1.6 for the B.1.1.7 variant.