Lies, Gosh Darn Lies, and Not Enough Good Statistics: Why Epidemic Model Parameter Estimation Fails

Daniel E Platt; Laxmi E Parida; Pierre Zalloua

Testing in New York State, starting on 03/04/2020, labeled as day 1. On 3/13, day 10, NY State received permission to contract for its own SARS-COV-2 testing. Statewide "distancing" started on 3/20, day 17, with the signing of the "New York State on Pause" bill. Prior to that, local jurisdictions had already been imposing local ordinances against assembly, and started closing schools. Figure 1 shows the cumulative total testing and positive test numbers indexed by day. Testing has been driven by tracking contacts of discovered cases which is reflected heavily in the close alignment of total tests and positive tests. On 3/13, the total number of tests increased from 308 to 3200, with surges to the 5,000 level, then 7,000, then 14,000 showing rapid subsequent . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.