Lies, Gosh Darn Lies, and Not Enough Good Statistics: Why Epidemic Model Parameter Estimation Fails

Daniel E Platt; Laxmi E Parida; Pierre Zalloua

Since the problem of identifying rate limiting parameters prior to peak is underdetermined, these rates must be determined elsewhere. Most statistical reporting does not provide nearly enough information to extract these factors, even at an environmental (quasi-) epidemiological experimental design standards. Further, jurisdictions are applying tests to try to identify new cases that are related to other identified cases through contact. The "enrollment protocol" was not designed to understand the spread in the population, but rather to try to identify patients and remove them from circulation by isolating them. More and broader testing is applied as test kits become more available. Test kits may not be uniform with loss of sensitivity depending on the stage of the infection and/or the type of swab taken (Nasal, nasopharyngeal or sputum). From jurisdiction to jurisdiction, testing and reporting protocols vary, making it difficult to compare jurisdictions, or even the same jurisdiction to itself from day to day. The rate of growth and doubling time may reflect availability and levels of testing more than the actual disease in the population.