Machine Learning Predictive Models for Coronary Artery Disease

Muhammad, L. J.; Al-Shourbaji, Ibrahem; Haruna, Ahmed Abba; Mohammed, I. A.; Ahmad, Abdulkadir; Jibrin, Muhammed Besiru

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the commonest type of heart disease and over 80% of the deaths resulted from the diseases occurred in developing countries including Nigeria, with majority being in those victims are below 70 years of age. Though, CAD is not a well known disease in Nigeria but however in year 2014, 2.82% of the total of deaths occurred in the country were due to the disease. In this study, a machine leaning predictive models for CAD has been developed with diagnostic CAD dataset obtained in the two General Hospitals in Kano State—Nigeria. The dataset applied on machine learning algorithms which include support vector machine, K nearest neighbor, random tree, Naïve Bayes, gradient boosting and logistic regression algorithms to build the predictive models and the models were evaluated based accuracy, specificity, sensitivity and receiver operating curve (ROC) performance evaluation techniques. In terms of accuracy random forest-based machine learning model emerged to be the best model with 92.04%, for specificity Naive Bayes based machine learning model emerged to be the best model with 92.40%, while for sensitivity support vector machine based machine learning model emerged to be the best model with 87.34% and for ROC, random forest-based machine learning model emerged to be the best model with 92.20%. The decision tree generated with random forest machine learning algorithm which happened to be best model in terms accuracy and ROC can be converted into production rules and be used develop expert system for diagnosis of CAD patients in Nigeria.