Hasty Reduction of COVID-19 Lockdown Measures Leads to the Second Wave of Infection

Hazem, Y.; Natarajan, S.; Berikaa, E.

The outbreak of COVID-19 has an undeniable global impact, both socially and economically. March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 was declared as a pandemic worldwide. Many governments, worldwide, have imposed strict lockdown measures to minimize the spread of COVID-19. However, these measures cannot last forever; therefore, many countries are already considering relaxing the lockdown measures. This study, quantitatively, investigated the impact of this relaxation in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Canada. A modified version of the SIR model is used to model the reduction in lockdown based on the already available data. The results showed an inevitable second wave of COVID-19 infection following loosening the current measures. The study tries to reveal the predicted number of infected cases for different reopening dates. Additionally, the predicted number of infected cases for different reopening dates is reported.