Author: Schaback, Robert
Title: On COVID-19 Modelling Cord-id: erpoh5he Document date: 2020_5_11
ID: erpoh5he
Snippet: This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm motivated by standard SIR models and aligned with the standard data provided by the Johns Hopkins University. To reconstruct data for the unregistered Infected, the algorithm uses current values of the infection fatality rate and a data-driven estimation of a spe
Document: This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm motivated by standard SIR models and aligned with the standard data provided by the Johns Hopkins University. To reconstruct data for the unregistered Infected, the algorithm uses current values of the infection fatality rate and a data-driven estimation of a specific form of the recovery rate. All other ingredients are data-driven as well. Various examples of predictions are provided for illustration.
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