Population movement, city closure and spatial transmission of the 2019-nCoV infection in China

Ai, Siqi; Zhu, Guanghu; Tian, Fei; Li, Huan; Gao, Yuan; Wu, Yinglin; Liu, Qiyong; Lin, Hualiang

The outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan City of China obtained global concern, the population outflow from Wuhan has contributed to spatial expansion in other parts of China. We examined the effects of population outflow from Wuhan on the 2019-nCoV transmission in other provinces and cities of China, as well as the impacts of the city closure in Wuhan. We observed a significantly positive association between population movement and the number of cases. Further analysis revealed that if the city closure policy was implemented two days earlier, 1420 (95% CI: 1059, 1833) cases could be prevented, and if two days later, 1462 (95% CI: 1090, 1886) more cases would be possible. Our findings suggest that population movement might be one important trigger of the 2019-nCoV infection transmission in China, and the policy of city closure is effective to prevent the epidemic.