Author: Roman Marchant; Noelle I Samia; Ori Rosen; Martin A Tanner; Sally Cripps
Title: Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: ijac68gh_12
Snippet: Table 1 also shows that the accuracy of predictions does not improve as the forecast horizon decreases, as one would expect. For March 31 and April 1 the forecast accuracy, as measured by the percentage of states whose actual death count lies within the 95% PI, decreases as the forecast horizon decreases. For March 31 the 2-step ahead prediction is better than the 1-step ahead prediction, while for April 1 the 3-step is better than the 2-step, wh.....
Document: Table 1 also shows that the accuracy of predictions does not improve as the forecast horizon decreases, as one would expect. For March 31 and April 1 the forecast accuracy, as measured by the percentage of states whose actual death count lies within the 95% PI, decreases as the forecast horizon decreases. For March 31 the 2-step ahead prediction is better than the 1-step ahead prediction, while for April 1 the 3-step is better than the 2-step, which in turn is better than the 1-step. However April 2 shows that accuracy slightly improves between the 3-step and the 2-step.
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