Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 containment strategies with considerations for limited medical resources

Brydon Eastman; Cameron Meaney; Michelle Przedborski; Mohammad Kohandel

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . social distancing. This indicates that the principal effect of a strict social distancing policy is to shift the infection peak. Delaying the onset of the infection peak allows the health care system to prepare for the wave of patients, allowing for the creation of additional supplies so that more patients can receive the necessary care. This stresses the idea that a gradual reduction is social distancing, rather than an abrupt end to the policy, would be most effective at reducing the total death toll. Figure 4 : Estimated total number of deaths in Quebec and Ontario due to COVID-19, six months and two years of social distancing for various levels of social distancing adherence. The results indicate that after two years, the total death count is approximately equal for all social distancing behaviours. However, the total deaths after six months decrease drastically with increased social distancing, suggesting a flattening of the infection curve. Such a flattening implies a gradual accumulation of deaths, which better enables the health care system to deal with the wave of infections.