Author: Yong Tao
Title: Maximum entropy method for estimating the reproduction number: An investigation for COVID-19 in China Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: 7umn0vkv_62
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.14.20035659 doi: medRxiv preprint interval is always absent, the maximum entropy method is a more convenient approach for estimating the probability distribution function of generation interval. By the maximum entropy method we first determine the probability distribution function of generation interval of COVID-19 and further apply it to estimating the real-time values of r.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.14.20035659 doi: medRxiv preprint interval is always absent, the maximum entropy method is a more convenient approach for estimating the probability distribution function of generation interval. By the maximum entropy method we first determine the probability distribution function of generation interval of COVID-19 and further apply it to estimating the real-time values of reproduction numbers of China's epidemic. Plugging these estimated reproduction numbers into the susceptible-infectious-removed epidemic model, we simulate the evolutionary track of the epidemic in China, which is well in accordance with that of the real incident cases.
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