Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 containment strategies with considerations for limited medical resources

Brydon Eastman; Cameron Meaney; Michelle Przedborski; Mohammad Kohandel

As of mid-April 2020, close to two million people have been infected globally by SARS-CoV-2 and over 120,000 people have died as a result of complications from COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus [4] . The virus is now affecting people in 210 countries and territories around the globe. To attenuate the spread of the virus and mitigate the impact on the medical system, several different social distancing strategies have been implemented in countries around the world. These strategies range from quarantining infected individuals and those returning from international travel, to orders to avoid public parks and facilities, to prohibiting gatherings of more than two people (with exceptions for family members). In South Korea, for instance, a recent report has indicated that social distancing protocols were responsible for reducing the effective R 0 value in various cities (below 1 in some cases) by estimating social distancing effects via traffic or metro data [5] . In addition, in some countries, all day cares, educational facilities, and non-essential businesses have been ordered temporarily closed by government officials, and citizens have been ordered to stay home, except to go shopping for essential supplies, such as groceries and prescriptions.