Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 containment strategies with considerations for limited medical resources

Brydon Eastman; Cameron Meaney; Michelle Przedborski; Mohammad Kohandel

Our model results show that the social distancing policies already implemented in Ontario and Quebec have saved tens of thousands of lives, and can continue to do so if social distancing remains in place for a large proportion of the population and a sufficiently long time. The main objective in social distancing is to flatten the infection curve, preventing the healthcare system from becoming over-burdened, and minimizing the need for triage. The flatter the pandemic infection curve, the lesser the need for triage, and therefore the more lives that will be saved. Furthermore, social distancing acts not only to reduce the peak infections, but also to delay it -buying time for the increased production of medical resources, testing of pharmaceutical therapies, and the development of a vaccine. Our results also stress the importance of gradually relieving social distancing rather than all at once. A significant decrease in social distancing at once can result in a second wave of infections which can overwhelm the healthcare system.