Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada

Ashleigh Tuite; David N Fisman; Amy L Greer

All of the interventions considered were projected to delay the epidemic peak and reduce the number of cases requiring ICU care at the peak (Figure 3) . The effectiveness of the interventions scaled with intervention duration. For all interventions, when the intervention duration was 6 months or less, there was no appreciable difference on final attack rate. With 12 and 18 months of heightened response measures, the proportion of the population infected at the end of the 2year period was reduced and, in some simulations, the prevalence of cases requiring intensive care fell below Ontario's current capacity for all or part of the time period. The largest effect was observed for the restrictive social distancing intervention. The combination intervention, with enhanced case detection and less aggressive social distancing was projected to substantially . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.