Association of the Timing of School Closings and Behavioral Changes With the Evolution of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in the US.

Zimmerman, Frederick J; Anderson, Nathaniel W

Importance The consequences of school closures for children's health are profound, but existing evidence on their effectiveness in limiting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission is unsettled. Objective To determine the independent associations of voluntary behavioral change, school closures, and bans on large gatherings with the incidence and mortality due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based, interrupted-time-series analysis of lagged independent variables used publicly available observational data from US states during a 60-day period from March 8 to May 18, 2020. The behavioral measures were collected from anonymized cell phone or internet data for individuals in the US and compared with a baseline of January 3 to February 6, 2020. Estimates were also controlled for several state-level characteristics. Exposures Days since school closure, days since a ban on gatherings of 10 or more people, and days since residents voluntarily conducted a 15% or more decline in time spent at work via Google Mobility data. Main Outcomes and Measures The natural log of 7-day mean COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Results During the study period, the rate of restaurant dining declined from 1 year earlier by a mean (SD) of 98.3% (5.2%) during the study period. Time at work declined by a mean (SD) of 40.0% (7.9%); time at home increased by a mean (SD) of 15.4% (3.7%). In fully adjusted models, a delay of 1 day in implementing mandatory school closures was associated with a 3.5% reduction (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.965; 95% CI, 0.946-0.984) in incidence, whereas each day of delay in behavioral change was associated with a 9.3% reduction (IRR, 0.907; 95% CI, 0.890-0.925) in incidence. For mortality, each day of delay in school closures was associated with a subsequent 3.8% reduction (IRR, 0.962; 95% CI, 0.926-0.998), and each day of delay in behavioral change was associated with a 9.8% reduction (IRR, 0.902; 95% CI, 0.869-0.936). Simulations suggest that a 2-week delay in school closures alone would have been associated with an additional 23 000 (95% CI, 2000-62 000) deaths, whereas a 2-week delay in voluntary behavioral change with school closures remaining the same would have been associated with an additional 140 000 (95% CI, 65 000-294 000) deaths. Conclusions and Relevance In light of the harm to children of closing schools, these findings suggest that policy makers should consider better leveraging the public's willingness to protect itself through voluntary behavioral change.