Author: Yong Tao
Title: Maximum entropy method for estimating the reproduction number: An investigation for COVID-19 in China Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: 7umn0vkv_50
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.14.20035659 doi: medRxiv preprint quarantine measures, the reproduction number for the second period (from January 23, 2020 to February 5, 2020) has been reduced to 3.122 with the reduction amplitude being 15 .78%. For the third period (from February 6, 2020 to February 19, 2020), the reproduction number has remarkably been reduced to 1.2114, which is close to 1. This implie.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.14.20035659 doi: medRxiv preprint quarantine measures, the reproduction number for the second period (from January 23, 2020 to February 5, 2020) has been reduced to 3.122 with the reduction amplitude being 15 .78%. For the third period (from February 6, 2020 to February 19, 2020), the reproduction number has remarkably been reduced to 1.2114, which is close to 1. This implies that the epidemic has been effectively controlled. It should be pointed out that the last day of the third period (February 19) is just the turning point of the epidemic, refer to Figure 3 ; therefore, the real data supports our calculations for the reproduction number. As the epidemic come to the fourth period (from February 20, 2020 to March 4, 2020), the reproduction number is eventually reduced to 0.6028, a level below 1. In this sense, China's quarantine measures have obtained a preliminary success.
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