A Tarnished Era: China Since 2010

Reilly, Michael

Despite regular high-level trade missions and much attention, the UK’s relative trade performance with China has barely changed over the last forty years. Although trade with China is widely considered to be inextricably linked with politics, hence the missions, there is ample evidence over many years showing this not to be the case. The view persists because it suits officials on both sides to consider this to be so, but what matters more in winning business in China is patience, determination, and good contacts. To date, however, the UK’s approach has been hampered by the lack of a clear strategy or consistent policy, with frequent and extreme changes in approach, together with an under-performing diplomatic presence in the country. This mattered less while it was a member of the EU, as this gave it ‘safety in numbers’ against possible Chinese retaliation. Outside the EU, the UK will be more isolated. It therefore needs to develop urgently a post-Brexit strategy for its relations with China. The country is too big to ignore and engaging with it over a range of multilateral issues is essential.