Selected article for: "actual number and estimated number"
Author: Lionel Roques; Etienne Klein; Julien Papaix; Samuel Soubeyrand
Title: Mechanistic-statistical SIR modelling for early estimation of the actual number of cases and mortality rate from COVID-19
  • Document date: 2020_3_24
    • ID: dqg8fkca_24
    Snippet: We thus obtain, on March 17 an IFR of 0.5% (95%-CI: 0.3 − 0.8), and the distribution of the IFR is relatively stable over time (see Fig. A2 in the Appendix). Additionally, the distribution of the cumulated number of infected cases (I(t) + R(t)) across time is presented in Fig. 2 . We observe that it is much higher than the total number of observed cases (compare with Fig. 1) . The average estimated ratio between the actual number of individuals.....
    Document: We thus obtain, on March 17 an IFR of 0.5% (95%-CI: 0.3 − 0.8), and the distribution of the IFR is relatively stable over time (see Fig. A2 in the Appendix). Additionally, the distribution of the cumulated number of infected cases (I(t) + R(t)) across time is presented in Fig. 2 . We observe that it is much higher than the total number of observed cases (compare with Fig. 1) . The average estimated ratio between the actual number of individuals that have been infected and observed cases (I(t) + R(t))/Σ t is 8 (95%-CI: 5-12) over the considered period.

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