Selected article for: "cc ND international license and reproduction number"
Author: Yong Tao
Title: Maximum entropy method for estimating the reproduction number: An investigation for COVID-19 in China
  • Document date: 2020_3_20
    • ID: 7umn0vkv_48
    Snippet: Chinese people were aware of the outbreak of COVID-19 after January 21, 2020 and local governments did not take effective measures to control the epidemic during this period. Unfortunately, the data in the first period is very incomplete. By contrast, the reported infected cases on January 10 (41 cases) and January 22 (571 cases) can be roughly used. Consider that the first period is a free propagation stage, we use both data to approximately res.....
    Document: Chinese people were aware of the outbreak of COVID-19 after January 21, 2020 and local governments did not take effective measures to control the epidemic during this period. Unfortunately, the data in the first period is very incomplete. By contrast, the reported infected cases on January 10 (41 cases) and January 22 (571 cases) can be roughly used. Consider that the first period is a free propagation stage, we use both data to approximately restore real-time data of this period by the exponential growth formula 571 = 41 • exp(12 • ), where denotes the growth rate. Using the restored data, the estimated value of the reproduction number for the first period is calculated to be 3.7069, see Therefore, the subsequent periods no longer belong to free transmission. For these periods, the results of the reproduction number have been listed in Table 1 . Due to the . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

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