Multicenter cohort study demonstrates more consolidation in upper lungs on initial CT increases the risk of adverse clinical outcome in COVID-19 patients

Yu, Qian; Wang, Yuancheng; Huang, Shan; Liu, Songqiao; Zhou, Zhen; Zhang, Shijun; Zhao, Zhen; Yu, Yizhou; Yang, Yi; Ju, Shenghong

Rationale: Chest computed tomography (CT) has been used for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) monitoring. However, the imaging risk factors for poor clinical outcomes remain unclear. In this study, we aimed to assess the imaging characteristics and risk factors associated with adverse composite endpoints in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods: This retrospective cohort study enrolled patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from 24 designated hospitals in Jiangsu province, China, between 10 January and 18 February 2020. Clinical and initial CT findings at admission were extracted from medical records. Patients aged < 18 years or without available clinical or CT records were excluded. The composite endpoints were admission to ICU, acute respiratory failure occurrence, or shock during hospitalization. The volume, density, and location of lesions, including ground-glass opacity (GGO) and consolidation, were quantitatively analyzed in each patient. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify the risk factors among age and CT parameters associated with the composite endpoints. Results: In this study, 625 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients were enrolled; among them, 179 patients without an initial CT at admission and 25 patients aged < 18 years old were excluded and 421 patients were included in analysis. The median age was 48.0 years and the male proportion was 53% (224/421). During the follow-up period, 64 (15%) patients had a composite endpoint. There was an association of older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.06; P = 0.003), larger consolidation lesions in the upper lung (Right: OR, 1.13; 95%CI: 1.03-1.25, P =0.01; Left: OR,1.15; 95%CI: 1.01-1.32; P = 0.04) with increased odds of adverse endpoints. Conclusion: There was an association of older age and larger consolidation in upper lungs on admission with higher odds of poor outcomes in patients with COVID-19.