Author: Gytis Dudas; Luiz Max Carvalho; Andrew Rambaut; Trevor Bedford; Ali M. Somily; Mazin Barry; Sarah S. Al Subaie; Abdulaziz A. BinSaeed; Fahad A. Alzamil; Waleed Zaher; Theeb Al Qahtani; Khaldoon Al Jerian; Scott J.N. McNabb; Imad A. Al-Jahdali; Ahmed M. Alotaibi; Nahid A. Batarfi; Matthew Cotten; Simon J. Watson; Spela Binter; Paul Kellam
Title: MERS-CoV spillover at the camel-human interface Document date: 2017_8_10
ID: 8xcplab3_12
Snippet: We find that observed phylogenetic patterns of sequence clustering strongly support R 0 below 1.0 (middle panel in Figure 3 ). Mean R 0 value observed in matching simulations is 0.72 (95% percentiles 0.57-0.90), suggesting the inability of the virus to sustain transmission in humans. Lower values for R 0 in turn suggest relatively large numbers of zoonotic transfers of viruses into humans (right-hand panel in Figure 3 ). Median number of cross-sp.....
Document: We find that observed phylogenetic patterns of sequence clustering strongly support R 0 below 1.0 (middle panel in Figure 3 ). Mean R 0 value observed in matching simulations is 0.72 (95% percentiles 0.57-0.90), suggesting the inability of the virus to sustain transmission in humans. Lower values for R 0 in turn suggest relatively large numbers of zoonotic transfers of viruses into humans (right-hand panel in Figure 3 ). Median number of cross-species introductions observed in matching simulations is 592 (95% percentiles 311-811). Our results suggest a large number of unobserved MERS primary cases. Given this, we also performed simulations where the total number of cases is doubled to 4000 to explore the impact of dramatic underestimation of MERS cases. In these analyses R 0 values tend to decrease even further as numbers of introductions go up, although very few simulations match currently observed MERS-CoV sequence data ( Figure S7 ).
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