Selected article for: "prediction accuracy and SIR model"
Author: Igor Nesteruk
Title: Long-term predictions for COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Ukraine, Austria and Italy
  • Document date: 2020_4_11
    • ID: hmem8se3_39
    Snippet: The real processes are much more complicated. In particular, all the parameters in SIR model are supposed to be constant. If the quarantine measures and speed of isolation change or new infected persons are coming in the country, the accuracy of the prediction reduces. The accuracy of predictions increases with increasing the number of observations. On the other hand, the need for forecasts is reduced if an epidemic is stabilized......
    Document: The real processes are much more complicated. In particular, all the parameters in SIR model are supposed to be constant. If the quarantine measures and speed of isolation change or new infected persons are coming in the country, the accuracy of the prediction reduces. The accuracy of predictions increases with increasing the number of observations. On the other hand, the need for forecasts is reduced if an epidemic is stabilized.

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