Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management (MAPCM)

Willem G Odendaal

A. Moderate Mitigation 1) Assumptions: In this example let's assume a homogenous population that can be divided in N s isolated segments of varying sizes. Next let's asssume that there are exactly two possible reproductive numbers for the virus, R oh and R om , where R oh > R om . For example, R oh might be the reproductive rate at which herd immunity occurs, while R om is the reproduction number with certain mitigation measures in place. Let's also assume that there are only two possible states to choose from and that only one of them can be present in each of the segments. In the initial state the virus infects the population of each segment with R om . Once mitigation is relaxed in a specific segment, it switches to the herd state having R oh as the reproductive number.