Mapping the Burden of COVID-19 in the United States

Ian F Miller; Alexander D Becker; Bryan T Grenfell; C. Jessica E Metcalf

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054700 doi: medRxiv preprint Before even considering the increased case burden these more rural places are projected to experience relative to the rest of the U.S., it is evident that hospitals, and to a greater extent, hospitals with the capacity to provide intensive care, are unevenly distributed. Many regions have limited, or even no, facilities with the ability to provide the type of acute or critical care needed to treat COVID-19. Case fatality rates in these regions may rise above the national average if people are unable to access care. Bolstering the capacity of rural health systems and ensuring equitable access to care should be central goals of COVID-19 management strategies. It is important to note that while the healthcare systems of major population centers aren't identified as weak spots in our analysis, they do service a much larger number of people. Given the magnitude of the consequences of their potential failure, they should, of course, remain a priority for preparedness efforts.