Selected article for: "epidemic peak and health system capacity"

Author: Ian F Miller; Alexander D Becker; Bryan T Grenfell; C. Jessica E Metcalf
Title: Mapping the Burden of COVID-19 in the United States
  • Document date: 2020_4_11
  • ID: n5gykapg_26
    Snippet: Our findings are robust to different assumptions about transmission patterns. However, it is imperative that they be interpreted in the context of our methods. We were deliberately conservative in not considering the impact of potential therapeutics and vaccines. Our results only underscore the urgency of developing these interventions. We specifically did not attempt to predict the epidemic peak timing or magnitude. Given the time-invariant scen.....
    Document: Our findings are robust to different assumptions about transmission patterns. However, it is imperative that they be interpreted in the context of our methods. We were deliberately conservative in not considering the impact of potential therapeutics and vaccines. Our results only underscore the urgency of developing these interventions. We specifically did not attempt to predict the epidemic peak timing or magnitude. Given the time-invariant scenario we model (i.e., 20% of the population acquires infection), it is likely that our projections will not match future observed patterns of disease burden in the short term as many regions are still in the early phases of their epidemics. However, our results provide a first best guess as to the expected patterns of burden in the long term rooted in basic features of demography and health system capacity.

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