MARKOVIAN RANDOM WALK MODELING AND VISUALIZATION OF THE EPIDEMIC SPREAD OF COVID-19

Haluk Akay; George Barbastathis

The random walk model was used to simulate and visualize the epidemic spread of CoVID-19 in four different regions and countries. Hubei province (China) and South Korea both have experienced a decline in active confirmed cases, while the rate of new active confirmed cases in Spain appears to be decreasing. Cases in Iran continue to increase. Active confirmed cases are calculated by subtracting recovered and dead counts from the number of total confirmed cases. Active confirmed cases are analogous to the combined populations of Infected and Quarantined agents in the model. The simulations are scaled with a linear population scaling factor, and the population density index D and testing rate T are manually fitted from the rate of active confirmed and removed cases in the real data. The results of these simulations are shown in figures 5 and 6. The parameters used in the simulations are included in table 1.