Selected article for: "date death and death date death"
Author: Carson, R. T.; Carson, S. L.; Dye, T. K.; Mayfield, S. L.; Moyer, D. C.; Yu, C. A.
Title: COVID-19's U.S. Temperature Response Profile
  • Cord-id: ysdw31nq
  • Document date: 2020_11_5
    • ID: ysdw31nq
    Snippet: We estimate the U.S. temperature response curve for COVID-19 and show transmission is quite sensitive to temperature variation. This is despite summer outbreaks widely assumed to show otherwise. By largely replacing the death counts states report daily, with counts based on death certificate date, we build a week-ahead statistical forecasting model that explains most of the daily variation (R-square = 0.97) and isolates the COVID-19 temperature response profile (p < 0.001). These counts normaliz
    Document: We estimate the U.S. temperature response curve for COVID-19 and show transmission is quite sensitive to temperature variation. This is despite summer outbreaks widely assumed to show otherwise. By largely replacing the death counts states report daily, with counts based on death certificate date, we build a week-ahead statistical forecasting model that explains most of the daily variation (R-square = 0.97) and isolates the COVID-19 temperature response profile (p < 0.001). These counts normalized at 31C (U.S. mid-summer average) scale up nearly 160% at 5C. Positive cases are more temperature sensitive; scaling up by almost 400% between 31C and 5C. Dynamic feedback amplifies these effects. There is a short window to get COVID-19 under control before cooler weather makes the task substantially more challenging.

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