MERS-CoV spillover at the camel-human interface

Gytis Dudas; Luiz Max Carvalho; Andrew Rambaut; Trevor Bedford; Ali M. Somily; Mazin Barry; Sarah S. Al Subaie; Abdulaziz A. BinSaeed; Fahad A. Alzamil; Waleed Zaher; Theeb Al Qahtani; Khaldoon Al Jerian; Scott J.N. McNabb; Imad A. Al-Jahdali; Ahmed M. Alotaibi; Nahid A. Batarfi; Matthew Cotten; Simon J. Watson; Spela Binter; Paul Kellam

. CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/173211 doi: bioRxiv preprint Figure S8 . Boxplots of matching simulated case and sequence cluster distributions. Boxplots indicate frequency of case (blue, top) and sequence (red, bottom) cluster sizes across simulations at different bias levels, marginalised across R 0 values. Outliers are shown with transparency, medians are indicated with thick black lines. Case clusters exhibit a strong skew with large numbers of singleton introductions and a substantial tail at higher levels of bias. Figure S9 . Quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot of empirical and simulated sequence cluster sizes. Density of sequence cluster size percentiles (1st-99th, calculated across a grid of 50 values) calculated for random states from the posterior distribution (x-axis) and matching simulations (y-axis). Most values fall on the one-to-one line, with a heavier tail in mid-sized sequence clusters in empirical data, manifesting as a greater density of points below the one-to-one line in the middle.