Epidemiological Tools that Predict Partial Herd Immunity to SARS Coronavirus 2

Yasuhiko Kamikubo; Atsushi Takahashi

China have been shown to be effective, 7 they incur massive costs such as economic losses. 11 Conversely, herd immunity policy will face substantial mortality among high risk population. 12, 13 We propose that a policy that expects herd immunity are dangerous in the areas indicated in brown, red, and magenta in Fig. 4 . In areas marked in yellow, policies that balance social closure and population immunity are desirable. In the areas marked in green, in contrast, no social isolation may be required except for individuals over 60 and at high risk, such as those with diabetes, coronary heart disease, high blood pressure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease, and cancer. 12,13 Thus, with the use of the new epidemiological tool, governments may be able to predict SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and mortality in their countries and use them in public health policies. Applying this scoring system to small geographies should allow for finer-grained policy creation.