Author: Wolfgang Bock; Barbara Adamik; Marek Bawiec; Viktor Bezborodov; Marcin Bodych; Jan Pablo Burgard; Thomas Goetz; Tyll Krueger; Agata Migalska; Barbara Pabjan; Tomasz Ozanski; Ewaryst Rafajlowicz; Wojciech Rafajlowicz,; Ewa Skubalska-Rafajlowicz; Sara Ryfczynska; Ewa Szczurek; Piotr Szymanski
Title: Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: 48stbn6k_16
Snippet: The present values of R* were fitted according to the disease progression till 20th March 2020 in Germany and Poland and summarized in Table 2 . In Figure 1 we show the timeline of the relevant observables for the uncontrolled epidemics. For selected values of R* in the overcritical domain the endprevalence of the epidemics for Wroc law are displayed in Figure 2 and Figure 3 . We compare them with theoretical predictions from random graph and br.....
Document: The present values of R* were fitted according to the disease progression till 20th March 2020 in Germany and Poland and summarized in Table 2 . In Figure 1 we show the timeline of the relevant observables for the uncontrolled epidemics. For selected values of R* in the overcritical domain the endprevalence of the epidemics for Wroc law are displayed in Figure 2 and Figure 3 . We compare them with theoretical predictions from random graph and branching process theory (see mathematical supplement in Appendix C for further details). For values of R* within the critical interval Figure 3 shows the level of herd immunity achievable by a successful mitigation.
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