Author: Wolfgang Bock; Barbara Adamik; Marek Bawiec; Viktor Bezborodov; Marcin Bodych; Jan Pablo Burgard; Thomas Goetz; Tyll Krueger; Agata Migalska; Barbara Pabjan; Tomasz Ozanski; Ewaryst Rafajlowicz; Wojciech Rafajlowicz,; Ewa Skubalska-Rafajlowicz; Sara Ryfczynska; Ewa Szczurek; Piotr Szymanski
Title: Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: 48stbn6k_19
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . Figure 1 : Timeline of the relevant observables for the uncontrolled epidemics: an example outcome of the epidemic in Wroc law growing at R* currently observed for Poland starting from 100 infected agents; We run a simulation on a randomly sampled population of 636 thousands of agents that fits the demographics (including. age and household structure) of Wroc law. The l.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . Figure 1 : Timeline of the relevant observables for the uncontrolled epidemics: an example outcome of the epidemic in Wroc law growing at R* currently observed for Poland starting from 100 infected agents; We run a simulation on a randomly sampled population of 636 thousands of agents that fits the demographics (including. age and household structure) of Wroc law. The left column presents daily incidents: new infections and hospitalization events. The right column shows a plot with the timeline of the epidemic. More than 95% of the population is predicted to be infected within a 3 months time frame starting from the first 100 infected agents.
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