Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail

Wolfgang Bock; Barbara Adamik; Marek Bawiec; Viktor Bezborodov; Marcin Bodych; Jan Pablo Burgard; Thomas Goetz; Tyll Krueger; Agata Migalska; Barbara Pabjan; Tomasz Ozanski; Ewaryst Rafajlowicz; Wojciech Rafajlowicz,; Ewa Skubalska-Rafajlowicz; Sara Ryfczynska; Ewa Szczurek; Piotr Szymanski

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . In Figure B .11 we present numerical results for Figure 5 . Parameter combinations where after 200 days less than 10 active cases were found are marked in green and correspond to subcritical progression (for fields with percentage numbers not all simulations ended with less than 10 active cases; the percent number refers to the fraction of simulations for which less than 10 active cases at 200 days were observed). In Figure B .12 we display by red fields with numbers those parameter pairs for which the ICU demand surpasses the threshold of ICUs (for fields with percentage numbers not all simulations ended with less than 10 active cases; the percent number refers to the fraction of simulations for which less than 10 active cases at 200 days were observed). The average number of days after which this happens is presented in the same figure. A red field with no number in can be considered as a pair of parameters for which successful mitigation takes place. The white fields correspond to overcritical parameter combinations for which the whole epidemic has already finished and less than 10 active cases were found 200 days after the outbreak.