Author: Zhanshan (Sam) Ma
Title: A Simple Mathematical Model for Estimating the Inflection Points of COVID-19 Outbreaks Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: fttqmts4_51
Snippet: To save page space, portions of the modeling results were supplied in Fig S1 of the OSI (Online Supplementary Information). From those failures, we conjecture that the failures are most likely due to the reality that in most of those countries (regions), the infections are still in the exponential growth stages. This, of course, suggests another possible limitation of the PLEC model, namely, the PLEC model may require a sufficiently long period o.....
Document: To save page space, portions of the modeling results were supplied in Fig S1 of the OSI (Online Supplementary Information). From those failures, we conjecture that the failures are most likely due to the reality that in most of those countries (regions), the infections are still in the exponential growth stages. This, of course, suggests another possible limitation of the PLEC model, namely, the PLEC model may require a sufficiently long period of data points to successfully reveal the inflection points. Like all mathematical models, PLEC model is no silver bullet. Without seeing a sign of inflection point, it may not be possible for the PLEC model to reveal its existence.
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