Author: Yong Tao
Title: Maximum entropy method for estimating the reproduction number: An investigation for COVID-19 in China Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: 7umn0vkv_60
Snippet: China. The simulation result requires ≈ 8, which agrees with our previous setting = 8.4 ± 3.8 [9] . Furthermore, we find that the reproduction numbers of quarantine periods in Table 1 can be fitted by an exponential function with 2 = 0.9924, see Figure 4 . Therefore, we apply this exponential function to predicting the reproduction numbers for the next seven periods (from March 5, 2020 to June 10, 2020). The results have been listed in Table 2.....
Document: China. The simulation result requires ≈ 8, which agrees with our previous setting = 8.4 ± 3.8 [9] . Furthermore, we find that the reproduction numbers of quarantine periods in Table 1 can be fitted by an exponential function with 2 = 0.9924, see Figure 4 . Therefore, we apply this exponential function to predicting the reproduction numbers for the next seven periods (from March 5, 2020 to June 10, 2020). The results have been listed in Table 2 , where we also present the predicted values of the number of real-time infected cases for the last day in each period. These predicted values imply that China's epidemic will gradually tend to disappear by May 2020, see the blue circles in Figure 5 .
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