Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management (MAPCM)

Willem G Odendaal

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055699 doi: medRxiv preprint A. Oversimplified Example 1) Assumptions: To illustrate the method in its simplest form, let's assume we have a homogenous population that can be dividided equally in N s isolated segments that are also homogenous. Next let's asssume that there is only one possible reproductive number for the virus, R o . For example, it might be the rate at which herd immunity occurs. Finally, we'll assume that there are only two possible states that can be present in each of the segments. In the first state the segment is in complete isolation and the virus has not been introduced into the segment population. In the second state, the virus spreads with R o . If isolation of a segment is terminated, that segment will be infected at R o up to an infection rate 2 , I % .