Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management (MAPCM)

Willem G Odendaal

The new technique, coined MAPCM for managing a pandemic using a quasi-open-loop control method to shape the outbreak curve related to the spread of an infectious disease into a population has been introduced by means of examples. This method makes it possible, for example, to impose mitigation amid a pandemic crisis to keep the hospitalizations within available healthcare capacity thresholds while keeping the economy moving without sacrificing lives. It was shown how the amplitude and duration of a controlled curve can be traded off against one another. Better results can be achieved using the method than imposing mitigation by itself. This method is promising if implemented early enough in outbreak cycle. It was also demonstrated that the method can be used to program the outbreak curve to custom fit changing needs. The rules and mechanical logistics for controlling the curve of an actual country or locality depend on the unique identity and character of the locality. The rules and mechanisms for implementing mitigation strategies in combination with MAPCM will be treated elsewhere.