Author: Yang, H. M.; Lombardi Junior, L. P.; Yang, A. C.
Title: The SIR model estimates incorrectly the basic reproduction number for the covid-19 epidemic Cord-id: w63jlt4s Document date: 2020_10_13
ID: w63jlt4s
Snippet: The transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) becomes pandemic, but presents different patterns in the world. To characterize the epi- demic of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in each countries and regions, mathematical models were formulated aiming the estimation of the basic reproduction number R0. Simple mathematical model, the SIR model, provided lower estimation for R0, ranging from 1.5 to 3.0. However, more elaborate model presented here estimated hig
Document: The transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) becomes pandemic, but presents different patterns in the world. To characterize the epi- demic of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in each countries and regions, mathematical models were formulated aiming the estimation of the basic reproduction number R0. Simple mathematical model, the SIR model, provided lower estimation for R0, ranging from 1.5 to 3.0. However, more elaborate model presented here estimated higher value for R0, 9.24 and 8.0 respectively, for Sao Paulo State (Brazil) and Spain. Additionally, SIR model estimated R0 using the severe covid-19 cases, which are not participating in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission chain.
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