Author: Qifang Bi; Yongsheng Wu; Shujiang Mei; Chenfei Ye; Xuan Zou; Zhen Zhang; Xiaojian Liu; Lan Wei; Shaun A Truelove; Tong Zhang; Wei Gao; Cong Cheng; Xiujuan Tang; Xiaoliang Wu; Yu Wu; Binbin Sun; Suli Huang; Yu Sun; Juncen Zhang; Ting Ma; Justin Lessler; Teijian Feng
Title: Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts Document date: 2020_3_4
ID: hnx213kp_35
Snippet: Based on 48 pairs of cases with a clear infector-infectee relationship and time of symptom onset, we estimate that the serial interval is gamma distributed with mean 6.3 days (95% CI 5.2,7.6) and a standard deviation of 4.2 days (95% CI, 3.1,5.3) ( Figure 2B , Table S2 ). Hence, 95% of cases are expected to develop symptoms within 14.3 (95% CI, 11.1,17.6) days of their infector. It should be noted this estimate includes the effect of isolation on.....
Document: Based on 48 pairs of cases with a clear infector-infectee relationship and time of symptom onset, we estimate that the serial interval is gamma distributed with mean 6.3 days (95% CI 5.2,7.6) and a standard deviation of 4.2 days (95% CI, 3.1,5.3) ( Figure 2B , Table S2 ). Hence, 95% of cases are expected to develop symptoms within 14.3 (95% CI, 11.1,17.6) days of their infector. It should be noted this estimate includes the effect of isolation on truncating the serial interval. Stratified results show that if the infector was isolated less than 3 days after infection the average serial interval was 3.6 days, increasing to 8.1 days if the infector was isolated on the third day after symptom onset or later (Table S4 ).
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