Selected article for: "data analysis and symptom onset"
Author: Qifang Bi; Yongsheng Wu; Shujiang Mei; Chenfei Ye; Xuan Zou; Zhen Zhang; Xiaojian Liu; Lan Wei; Shaun A Truelove; Tong Zhang; Wei Gao; Cong Cheng; Xiujuan Tang; Xiaoliang Wu; Yu Wu; Binbin Sun; Suli Huang; Yu Sun; Juncen Zhang; Ting Ma; Justin Lessler; Teijian Feng
Title: Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts
  • Document date: 2020_3_4
    • ID: hnx213kp_42
    Snippet: This analysis of early SARS-CoV-2 cases and their close contacts in Shenzhen China, provides insights into the natural history, transmission and control of this disease. The values estimated provide the evidentiary foundation for predicting the impact of this virus, evaluating control measures, and guiding the global response. Analysis of how cases are detected, and use of data on individuals exposed but not infected, allow us to show that infect.....
    Document: This analysis of early SARS-CoV-2 cases and their close contacts in Shenzhen China, provides insights into the natural history, transmission and control of this disease. The values estimated provide the evidentiary foundation for predicting the impact of this virus, evaluating control measures, and guiding the global response. Analysis of how cases are detected, and use of data on individuals exposed but not infected, allow us to show that infection rates in young children are no lower than the population average (even if rates of clinical disease are). We are able to directly estimate critical transmission parameters, and show that, at least among observed contacts, transmission rates are low. Estimates of the distribution of time between symptom onset and case isolation by surveillance type reveal that heightened surveillance combined with case isolation could plausibly account for these low rates of transmission. These results paint a positive picture of the impact of heightened surveillance and isolation in Shenzhen. However, uncertainty in the number of asymptomatic cases missed by surveillance and their ability to transmit must temper any hopes of stopping the COVID-19 epidemic by this means.

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