Author: Erida Gjini
Title: Modeling Covid-19 dynamics for real-time estimates and projections: an application to Albanian data Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: ela022bo_3
Snippet: For the parameters, average values were assumed based on the existing literature on COVID-19 (6; 7; 4). The basic reproduction number R 0 for COVID-19 transmission, denoting the number of new infections generated from a typical infected individual during the period of infectiousness, is expected to be between 1.7 and 2.6, (2) , and is the key target of control measures. The incubation time from exposure to infection, informing the progression rat.....
Document: For the parameters, average values were assumed based on the existing literature on COVID-19 (6; 7; 4). The basic reproduction number R 0 for COVID-19 transmission, denoting the number of new infections generated from a typical infected individual during the period of infectiousness, is expected to be between 1.7 and 2.6, (2) , and is the key target of control measures. The incubation time from exposure to infection, informing the progression rate τ , has been shown to be around 6.5 days (median), and up to 14 days (8) . Exposed individuals are assumed to not be infectious. After progressing to infection, a fraction of individuals are symptomatic given by φ, and 1 − φ are asymptomatic. The duration of infection from infected people in Wuhan has been observed to be around 11 days (7) , motivating my assumption of γ = 1/11 in the model, but larger and lower values have also been reported such as 20-30 days infectious period (9; 6) and 3.48 days (3) . In Albania, until March 28, more than 30 infected individuals have recovered, with typical viral shedding from onset of symptoms for about 6 days. The model assumes symptomatic individuals can progress to recovery or death with relative probability 1−f and f . It is assumed that asymptomatic individuals only experience mild infection and progress to recovery. Asymptomatic individuals transmit less infection, scaling their contribution by a factor k 2 (k 2 < 1).
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- asymptomatic individual and individual fraction: 1, 2
- asymptomatic individual and infected individual: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13
- asymptomatic individual and infected people: 1, 2
- asymptomatic individual and infection exposure: 1
- asymptomatic individual and infectiousness period: 1
- asymptomatic individual and mild infection: 1
- asymptomatic individual and new infection: 1
- asymptomatic individual and progression rate: 1
- asymptomatic individual and symptom onset: 1, 2, 3
- asymptomatic individual and symptom onset viral shedding: 1
- asymptomatic individual and symptomatic individual: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
- asymptomatic individual and viral shedding: 1, 2, 3
- average value and death recovery: 1, 2
- average value and infect individual: 1
- average value and infected individual: 1
- average value and infected people: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
- average value and infection exposure: 1
- average value and median day: 1
- average value and new infection: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date