Author: Cherednik, I.
Title: A surprising formula for the spread of Covid-19 under aggressive management Cord-id: xmq502gm Document date: 2020_5_2
ID: xmq502gm
Snippet: We propose an algebraic-type formula that describes with high accuracy the spread of Covid-19 pandemic under aggressive management for the periods of the intensive growth of the total number of infections. The formula can be used as a powerful forecasting tool. The parameters of the theory are the transmission rate, reflecting the viral fitness and "normal" frequency of contacts in the infected areas, and the intensity of prevention measures. The duration of the period of intensive growth is ess
Document: We propose an algebraic-type formula that describes with high accuracy the spread of Covid-19 pandemic under aggressive management for the periods of the intensive growth of the total number of infections. The formula can be used as a powerful forecasting tool. The parameters of the theory are the transmission rate, reflecting the viral fitness and "normal" frequency of contacts in the infected areas, and the intensity of prevention measures. The duration of the period of intensive growth is essentially inversely proportional to the square root of the intensity of hard measures. A more precise formula is based on Bessel functions. The data for the USA, UK, Sweden, Israel are provided.
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